Suppose a country’s central bank wants to keep the real exchange rate constant. What should it do to the real interest rate if foreign economies enter recessions? Explain your answer with a graph.
Short answer: The central bank should lower its real interest rate (by roughly the same amount as the foreign real rate falls). Intuition: foreign recessions typically lead foreign central banks to cut their interest rates. If the home real rate does not fall as well, the interest differential will induce an expected change in the nominal exchange rate and thus change the real exchange rate. To keep the real exchange rate constant the home authority must reduce its real interest rate so that expected exchange rate changes remain zero (or unchanged).
Explanation (using uncovered interest parity and the real exchange rate): Uncovered interest parity implies roughly
i ≈ i* + expected depreciation of the domestic currency
If the real exchange rate is to remain constant over time, expected depreciation must be unchanged (for a given path of relative prices). When foreign rates i* fall during a recession, holding domestic i constant would increase the expected depreciation term (creating a depreciation pressure on the domestic currency and hence a change in the real exchange rate). To offset that and keep expected depreciation unchanged, the domestic real interest rate i must fall as well.
Interpretation: point A is the initial situation (expected depreciation = 0). A fall in foreign rates shifts the UIP relation down (red dashed line). If the domestic rate does not fall, the intersection with the new line implies positive expected depreciation (point B) and a change in the real exchange rate. To restore expected depreciation to zero (keep the real exchange rate constant), the domestic rate must be reduced to the new foreign rate level (point C).
Tag: Economics – Others
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